What Is Polymarket? — Prediction Markets Explained
Polymarket is a crypto-native prediction market where you can buy YES or NO shares on the outcome of real-world events — the next U.S. election, whether the Fed cuts rates, who wins the Super Bowl, even whether Bitcoin hits $200K by year-end. Each share pays $1 if your prediction is right, $0 if wrong, and the price between $0 and $1 reflects the implied probability of that outcome.
How does Polymarket work?
Each market has YES and NO shares that always sum to $1. If you think Newsom is more than 31% likely to win the 2028 nomination, you buy YES at 31¢ — if he wins, your share pays $1, a 3.2x return. If he loses, your share is worth $0. The price moves with new buyers and sellers, just like a stock market. Settlement is on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle.
Is Polymarket legal in the US?
Polymarket reached a 2022 settlement with the CFTC and was effectively closed to U.S. retail traders for years. In 2025-2026 the company resumed taking U.S. business after acquiring a CFTC-regulated DCM. Always check the latest terms — geo-restrictions and KYC requirements change frequently.
What's the biggest Polymarket bet ever?
The largest single Polymarket position on record is the $30M+ stake the so-called 'French whale' Théo built across multiple Trump-2024 markets, ultimately netting roughly $50M. Volume on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market crossed $3.7 billion.
How is Polymarket different from a sportsbook?
A sportsbook quotes you a fixed price and you bet against the house. Polymarket is peer-to-peer — you trade against other users, the price is set by an order book, and you can buy and sell your position before the event resolves. There's no juice/vig, only a small protocol fee.
Can I trade Polymarket on a phone?
Yes. Polymarket has a mobile-friendly web app and (in some regions) a native app. Funding requires USDC on Polygon — most users top up via Coinbase, Kraken, or directly bridging from another chain.